Home / Latest Articles

Latest Articles

The Latest Research Produced by the Human Security Centre

The ‘Narva People’s Republic’: an Emerging Critical Grey Zone Threat

Estonia should respond to challenges as they emerge. Currently, Estonia is grappling not with an imminent Russian attack, but with public perceptions of security and their susceptibility to political manipulation — a factor that can enhance the effectiveness of Estonian response should the threat of Russian invasion materialise.

Read More »

Winning Isn’t Enough: What Iran Reveals About a War Over Taiwan

The most extreme variant of war termination was embodied in the unconditional surrender of the leading Axis powers during World War II. However, outcomes that see an opponent’s state fully taken under the victor’s control are rare. Far more common are conflicts fought to secure limited objectives that end with diplomatic settlements. But in a modern environment, even wars with constrained ambitions are increasingly challenging to end. The ongoing conflict in Iran is a reminder that modern interstate wars increasingly continue long after the supposedly decisive battle is over.

Read More »

Resilience under fire: how US’s WWII airfield upgrades back Taiwan

In World War II, the United States built a western Pacific airfield here, another there, and more elsewhere, each intended to bring more Japanese targets into range. Now the abundance of old bases is becoming a resource for resilience: several are being brought back into service as places to disperse aircraft and to maintain operations even as other airfields are knocked out.

Read More »

The 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy: It’s Still About China (and Taiwan)

While the tonal change in the content of the new NDS compared to its predecessors is undeniable, the substance is far from radical. Although such strategies and similar documents are not prescriptive to administration decisions, they do guide the planning that shapes day-to-day White House policy options and act to signals to allies and parters. In this context, it should be regarded as less of a historical break than some headlines suggest.

Read More »

Greenland’s Security Architecture

Understand Greenland’s security architecture requires first realizing its value – its strategic geography. Forming both the northern end of the Greenland – Iceland – UK (GIUK) Gap, and serving as the northern-most point of the American continent, Greenland has been significant for early-warning and radar-tracking, able to detect threats transiting over the Arctic before reaching Canada and the United States

Read More »

Operation Southern Spear – A Legitimate Foreign Policy Objective or US-Backed Maritime Piracy?

Operation Southern Spear ultimately reveals a significant and unsettling expansion of US force beyond established limits of international law. By classifying drug trafficking as an armed attack and presenting enforcement measures as acts of self-defence, the Trump administration has eroded the distinction between law enforcement and warfare.

Read More »

Fanning the flames: Russia’s energy exports as a destabilising strategy and Japan’s energy security

Russia’s Sakhalin-II project has been used to supply around 10% of Japan’s liquefied natural gas (LNG). In contrast to Western states’ extensive sanctions against Russian energy infrastructure projects such as Nord Stream in Europe, the US has very recently extended Sakhalin-II’s import permit, allowing it to continue LNG supplies to Japan.

Read More »