Human Security Centre Human Rights and International Security Research

The label of an “Arms Race” is an exaggerated view on current events in the western Balkans. Croatia and Serbia both have legitimate cases to modernize and strengthen their armed forces in light of war in Europe and the desire for strengthened EU and NATO integration. It is the decision of politics to turn to historical animosity to justify the ongoing developments of both armed forces for domestic purposes.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania saw the signs that Russia was preparing its society for a large-scale war with the West, and they knew it could have occurred in their countries – but it was Ukraine who fell victim to Russia’s expansionist ambitions.

Power game conundrums, widespread corruption, and an active peace support mission are all considerable barriers for any country seeking to enter the EU.

In the end, Qatar’s criticized leniency and support of Hamas will take a back-seat as the country will likely play a key role in finding a resolution to the war, giving it the credibility it needs to continue maintaining some degree of ties with a near globally recognized terrorist group.

While the UN-mandated, NATO-backed, and EU-led Peace Mission EUFOR-Althea continues to maintain peace and stability, it is up to the political process to find a lasting solution to a clearly unresolved frozen conflict.

Even if Israel eventually succeeds in rooting out the organization and the international community is able to make sustainable post-conflict arrangements for the territory’s governance and reconstruction, this does nothing to mitigate the immediate human security challenges.

It will take decades, if not centuries, to completely clear Ukraine of landmines, throughout which people will continue to be injured and killed.

The Kremlin is unlikely to want to lose any part of its empire and is likely to continue cracking down on separatism. Even with possible support from European neighbors, Königsberg sovereignty may be out of reach unless drastic changes in Russian society take place at War’s End.

It is the Sudanese people who have no prospect of winning. The longer fighting drags on, the higher the risk of an expanded civil war, and the more likely foreign actors will get involved.

HSC Fellow Oliver Hegglin has been featured in an article from the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation following the country's reliance on other nations to evacuate its nationals from crisis-hit Sudan.