Human Security Centre Human Rights and International Security Research

With Russia taking up the chair at the Arctic Council and the Biden Administration seemingly favouring a far more cooperative posture in the High North than was seen under Trump, now is the opportunity for both states to make some inroads into improving overall bilateral ties by prioritising cooperation in the Arctic.

The spate of diplomatic expulsions and sanctions seen over the past few months may be indicative of a failing Russian foreign policy in Europe. Russian foreign policy has always been motivated by three primary drivers – the need for security and a strong buffer; the necessity to be recognised as a great power; and the need to maintain a pragmatic relationship with the West. On all counts, one could argue that recent events have hindered these objectives.

Amid a host of promises including a declaration to re-join the Paris Climate Agreement, the Biden administration announced in early January that it would seek an extension to the treaty, and on the 26th Biden and Putin agreed via a telephone conversation to a five-year extension.

The warming of relations between Russia and China in the Arctic has driven some Western policymakers to declare that an ‘Arctic Alliance’ has formed between the two powers. However, a deeper examination of the evidence indicates that a destabilising partnership between the two powers is far from apparent.

While Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have sought to pull themselves out of Russia’s orbit and entrench themselves as Western, European states, Moscow has sought to influence and destabilise this process.

Anti-corruption campaigner and leading Russian political oppositionist Alexei Navalny has been poisoned with the nerve agent ‘Novichok’. With the international community now demanding a full and transparent enquiry into the incident, it appears that this is yet another sign that the Kremlin’s grisly method of dealing with dissidents has indeed become an intrinsic facet of state policy in Russia.

The Government’s tepid response to the Russia Report is unlikely to have made any in the Kremlin lose much sleep. A stronger effort is therefore imperative to deter any future attempts to undermine UK democracy.

While the plot may have turned out to be a complete fabrication, the fear and panic inspired by the initial reports serve as a reminder that mokroye delo - wet affairs or “wetwork” in the West - has seen a resurgence under Vladimir Putin.

Any hopes of an alternate course for Russia have surely been dashed by the constitutional overhaul and it appears that the future will hold significantly more continuity than change for the country both internally and externally.

The Belarus-Russia integration process has been put on hold indefinitely and with relations between the two states entering a more pragmatic phase, Lukashenko will likely enhance his efforts to build further bridges between Belarus and the West.