Human Security Centre Human Rights and International Security Research

Iran’s influence is spreading. It exerts control over Hezbollah in Beirut, over Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, over the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and now over the Iraqi government in Baghdad.

Jordan’s regime has tough challenges ahead — its economic situation is poor and it faces a humanitarian refugee crisis which will encourage division and discord within the Kingdom — but it is safe from the threat of collapse.

Neither side really wants a full-scale war, but unintended escalation is very much possible.

In the end a moderate pact of Libyans — and a united and forceful international response — is needed to save the country from the ledge from which it is currently leaning. It will take time, it will cost money and it will require long term planning. But inaction now will only lead to the need for action later.