Human Security Centre Human Rights and International Security Research

Much like the ties with Russia, close relations with China are seen by the Serbian President as a means to pressure the West into increased involvement – a strategy that appears not without its successes.

The suspension of normal life across the Balkans as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak has been forcing governments to take quick action, and political elites across the region are being presented with unprecedented opportunities to show their true intentions.

If 2020 is to be marked by change and progress, the drive for this needs to come from within – and there will be plenty of opportunities for the international community to start paying attention to the region again.

On 18 October, the European Council failed to agree on starting membership negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. The vote showed that, when all is said and done, it is the vision of what the European Union should look like rather than its impact that matters most to some of its member states.

In the short-term, Turkish politics are unlikely to experience radical change, as Erdoğan has created a system for himself that will not be easily pried from his grasp. In the long-term, however, the cracks in his grand design will become too numerous to handle.

While the European Union worried about Russian involvement in the Western Balkans, China has been taking advantage of the last few years to quietly become one of the big players in the region.

Regardless of whether or not an event of Balkan Spring proportions is coming to the region, it is beyond evident that continuity is no longer an option – and that, one way or another, the present state of affairs will be coming to an end.

Even if the current protests fail to achieve their goals in the short-term, they are yet another signal that the status quo is unfeasible in the long-term. With European Union candidate status come Western-level demands and expectations – and the Serbian people's tolerance for a self-serving leadership has reached its limit.

When it comes to the Western Balkan countries, the essentials from the point of view of the European Union seem to have become having a West-oriented government, and not declaring war against one of their neighbours. Every step forward is rewarded with a distant promise, and every step back is reacted to with a vague warning.

Bosnia's October election cast a light on all of the country's weaknesses, dysfunctions and inefficiencies. The political system seems fixed in a form that only benefits its elite, and Bosnia-Herzegovina is moving sideways rather than with a look towards the future.